Election Stats

February 20, 2008

WA state primary prediction: Obama will keep his lead

Filed under: primary — Brian @ 11:00 am

About 60-80% of the ballots in the WA State Democrat primary have been counted, and using those numbers, along with the already counted results in each county, I have extrapolated the final vote counts in all the counties for Clinton and Obama.  Right now, Obama is winning with 51.6% vs. 48.4% for Clinton (ignoring all other candidates on the ballot).  After the final votes are counted, I am predicting that Obama will slightly widen his lead (mostly because King County still has more remaining ballots than most other counties) with a final fraction of 51.8% vs 48.2%.

Another way to look at this is that of the ~500,000 Democrat ballots counted, Obama got 16,000 more than Clinton.  After counting the remaining ~200,000 ballots, Obama should widen his lead to 25,000.

Here is a web page showing the data: http://www.distantconstellation.com/elections/WA/wa_pred.cgi

This is not a trivial or expected result.  For example, it could have been that the strong Obama counties had finished counting their ballots, and most of the remaining pro-Hillary counties still had a lot of counting to do, and the close results could have been swapped by the time the counting is finished.  That’s why the media folks have not predicted the results yet.  Another bias is that since this election had many absentees (postmarked – not received – by Tues, Feb 19), then the later absentees could have a different preference than the early absentees.

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