Election Stats

October 21, 2008

Election night prediction tool

Filed under: voting — Brian @ 10:36 pm

I am currently updating a tool I wrote which can help to make projections on election night.  I used it during the primaries and it simply takes the current vote tallies per county, along with the “% precincts counted” and then extrapolates each county individually to arrive at the totals for the whole state.  This can be super helpful in cases where a big city may only have 10% of the votes counted whereas the rest of the state might already be 90% done – in which case the overall numbers will have a big skew away from the city voting patterns.

Anyway, subscribe to my feed and I’ll post a link here when it is ready.  And, obviously it will only be useful for a couple hours on Nov 4th – less than 20 days away!

October 18, 2008

Great poll tracking sites

Filed under: polls, voting — Brian @ 10:45 pm

I’m sure that all of my tiny handful of readers have already found these sites…. but these are some great site which really carefully track the many state-by-state and overall polls.  They have a pro-Obama bias in their writing/blog posts, but they do seem to be open minded and fair when it comes to interpreting the polling data.  The problem right now is that they are seem to be arguing about how to get the most accurate numbers based on all these polls, based on how well each polling method/company did during the primaries or previous elections… BUT, we are still 3 weeks away and even if the polls were 100% accurate they still won’t predict what will happen on election day since who knows what could happen between now and then.  Stock market jumps to 14,000?  Terror? major gaffe?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.realclearpolitics.com

Even though Obama has got momentum and a serious advantage, I think it is going to be very close.

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